The second quarter of this year was the eighth in a row in which banks tightened the criteria for granting housing loans. In addition, according to the estimates of the Panurge Credit House, in the same period the value of newly granted housing loans was the lowest since the first quarter of 2010.
However, at present, several important factors indicate that the worst is behind us, and in the following months of 2012 the situation on the housing loan market should be gradually improving.
More stringent banks
A study by the National Bank of Poland entitled “The situation on the credit market, Q3 2012” shows that the second quarter of this year, as well as seven previous years in a row, was marked by banks tightening the criteria for granting housing loans. At the same time, it shows that also in Q3 this year. banks will introduce restrictions on the mortgage policy.
It is worth emphasizing, however, that the scale of exacerbation in April-June was the smallest since the third quarter of 2011, and that expected in July-September will also be the lowest since last year.
The consequence of such a long period of strict banks’ approach to granting housing loans is the decrease in the value of newly granted mortgage loans. According to calculations of the Panurge Credit House, in the second quarter of this year the value of newly granted housing loans ranged from PLN 9.50 to 9.75 billion and reached the lowest level since the first quarter of 2010.
The second half of the year was marked by growth
However, a gradual increase in banks’ lending in housing loans should be expected in the coming quarters. In the third quarter it will amount to around PLN 10.0-10.5 billion, and in the fourth quarter it will be around PLN 10.5-1.0 billion. The forecast for a gradual improvement in the housing loan market is based on several, as it seems, equally important elements.
The first is the noticeable gradual improvement in sentiment in global financial markets related to the slow but progressive extinguishing of the debt crisis in Euroland. In such conditions, the pressure on the banking sector to reduce lending is reduced and the general mood of not only investors but also consumers improves.
Therefore, banks operating in our segment in the housing loans segment should be more and more willing to grant more of them in the coming months. On the other hand, consumers, seeing that the scale of the current crisis is not as strong as they were threatened, will probably be more willing to incur such obligations than before, less afraid of, for example, losing their jobs.
Price stabilization on the real estate market
Another element that may improve the mortgage market is the situation on the Polish real estate market, where this field for general further price decline seems to be very, but it is very limited. What’s more, they should be expected to stabilize soon, and then after a certain period of calming down the return to a delicate upward trend.
Stopping further price drops on the real estate market, and then their expected slight increase will have a beneficial effect not only on the quality of banks’ loan portfolio, giving these institutions more room for maneuver in terms of granting new housing loans, but also encouraging consumers to purchase more than before real estate market.
Poles for a long time postponed their decisions in this regard not only fearing for their financial condition in uncertain times, but also hoping that they will be able to buy a flat or house at a lower price.