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For the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and on the eve of the launch of its new publication, Armed Conflict Survey, I examine the two seemingly contradictory effects of ISIS on global jihad.  I argue that the competing tendencies of unity and fragmentation create a dialectical tension that will drive the evolution of global jihadism in years to come.

I also wrote a full chapter on ‘The Evolution of Global Jihadism’ for the inaugural edition of Armed Conflict Survey, and featured on the panel at its press launch.